Forecasting
techniques: Environmental forecasting means
assessing the potential impact of likely change in the environment that offers
organization an advantage over competitors by which to narrow the range of
options.
There are many forecasting techniques. They are-
-
Time series model
-
Judgment
-
Brainstorming
-
Delphi method
-
Scenario Development
-
Political risk rating
1. Time Series model:
In time series models collects various demographic or demographical information
on the basis of sequential time intervals and then analysis these information
to predict this future.
For
example: If a company wants to predict the nature of consumer or customer. It
can use the past data.
2. Judgment:
In case of judgment method a manager can analyses various factors on the basis
of factorial value.
For
example- If square pharmaceutical LTD wants to forecast the market demand. It
can use the experience sells force personnel because their connected with the
customer.
3. Brainstorming:
Regarding Brainstorming method to use the capabilities to measure the factors.
For
example- In truism sector Just manager can evaluate the truism service demand
on the basis of evaluating the changing and dynamic in environment factors.
4. Delphi method:
It attempts to gain consensus among a group of people such as a senior
strategic management group.
Example-
Company senior strategic management group may.
5. Scenario development:
Recognize judgment and non-quantities information such as changing fashions.
Scenario and picture are depicting the future.
Example-
Various multinational oil company use sceneries method.
6. Political risk rating:
These taking the consideration the stability and predictability of nation.
Example:
In case of foreign invention this technique advises commercial organization and
government information about risk involvement.
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